A year back, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said that the doors of the BJP have closed for JDU leader Nitish Kumar. And now, amid developments that have shaken up the political circles months ahead of Lok Sabha polls, eight-time Chief Minister Mr Kumar is reportedly gearing up to join hands with the BJP again. This would be his fifth flip-flop in a decade, which has seen a swift decline in his popularity and party’s electoral performance.

BJP MLAs in Bihar have given letters of support to Nitish Kumar, according to sources. The party MLAs also held a meeting in Patna today, shortly before Mr Kumar met Governor Rajendra Arlekar and put in his papers.

The big question, however, is why the BJP is ready to take him back into the NDA fold after his repeated jumps across the political aisle. NDTV looks at some of the factors behind the BJP’s decision

A Blow To INDIA Bloc

Nitish Kumar has been one of the key faces of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc and was at the forefront of forging the united front to take on the formidable BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh has said it was Mr Kumar who convened INDIA meetings and that the Opposition bloc was expecting him to fight the BJP till the end. A flip-flop at this stage will leave the INDIA bloc red-faced months before the Lok Sabha polls. It would also give credence to the BJP’s contention that the Opposition bloc is an unstable alliance.

For the BJP, a flip-flop also means an advantage in Bihar, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats and was being seen as an INDIA stronghold so far. The ties between Congress and Trinamool Congress in Bengal, and Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab are already strained over seat-sharing talks. An end to the RJD-JDU alliance in Bihar at this stage would mean more trouble for INDIA. While a section of state BJP leaders have been against taking Mr Kumar back, the central leadership may have green-lighted the move after looking at the larger picture.

The State Equation

Over the past decade, Mr Kumar has managed to hold on to the Chief Minister post despite his repeated flip-flops. His popularity and his party’s electoral performance, however, has seen a consistent decline. His image of Sushashan Babu – the development man – has now been replaced as that of ‘paltu kumar’ – the one who keeps switching sides

From 115 seats in the 2010 Bihar polls to 71 in 2015 to just 43 in 2020, JDU’s strength in the Assembly has been on a slide.

This has meant that despite Mr Kumar being in the Chief Minister’s chair, his party is the third-largest force in the Assembly. Be it RJD or BJP, Mr Kumar’s autonomy has declined because it is his ally who has the more numbers. So the BJP knows that even if lets Mr Kumar retain the Chief Minister post, it holds greater control than JDU in the Bihar government’s decisions. That way, it is a win-win situation for BJP.

The Perception Game

Mr Kumar’s flip-flops over the past decade has adversely impacted his public perception. The BJP knows that it stands to lose little in the perception game because, unlike in Madhya Pradesh or Maharashtra, it is not a section of ruling party MLAs making a switch. In those states, the BJP was accused of engineering mutinies to topple governments. Here, with Mr Kumar repeatedly changing allies, the BJP will not be seen as the villain.

BJP leaders, predictably, have gone back to their “jungle raj” rhetoric to explain why they are ok with teaming with Mr Kumar again. “Jungle Raj” is a term used by the BJP to refer to the corruption- and crime-tainted tenure of the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD.

“We are the biggest party in Bihar. We are alert and are tracking the developments closely. We are seized of the shifting political sands in Bihar. We will not take a step back when it comes to discharging our responsibilities. We cannot leave Bihar in the hands of ‘Jungle Raj’,” BJP national spokesperson Ajay Alok told news agency ANI.

Nitish Kumar has done it again. He has resigned as Bihar Chief Minister, dumped the Mahagathbandhan with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, and returned to where he was in July 2022.

His party Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), will again try to form government in Bihar in an alliance with the BJP, the same set-up that he left in August 2022, which at that time had prompted Home Minister Amit Shah to say “all doors were closed” for Nitish Kumar if he ever wished to weld a partnership with the BJP again.

After resigning from the top post, Nitish Kumar, 72, told reporters in Patna today, “The new Grand Alliance that we created (in August 2022) is not in a good condition. The situation is not looking good.”

He alleged the JD(U) has been doing a lot of work in Bihar, but the “others” – alluding to Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – have not done anything much.

Nitish Kumar also left a negative review of the young Opposition bloc INDIA, which was engineered by him.

“I have been working hard to make a successful, meaningful (INDIA) alliance, but no one else (in the alliance) has been doing anything… Gathbandhan main bhi gadbad chal rahan hai (something is wrong in the alliance). People are not happy,” Nitish Kumar told reporters.

The INDIA alliance that was meant to face Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha election, due in three months, faces a daunting task now.

In his response to the no-confidence motion against the BJP government last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said the Opposition’s INDIA bloc was bowling one no-ball after the other. Five months later, political developments in Bihar have provided BJP nothing less than a full toss.

JDU leader Nitish Kumar’s move to end his alliance with the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal to revive his tie-up with the BJP comes as a massive setback to the INDIA bloc months before it takes on the formidable BJP in Lok Sabha polls. What’s more, Mr Kumar, in his first remarks after submitting his resignation, referred to how “nobody was working” in the INDIA bloc.

Here’s how Nitish Kumar’s latest flip-flop hits INDIA bloc

Bengal, Punjab And Now Bihar

The Bihar reversal comes amid the friction within the INDIA bloc to reach a seat-sharing arrangement with regional forces Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party. Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee has hit out at the Congress amid seat-sharing talks and virtually pulled the plug on an INDIA alliance in the state. She has said Trinamool will contest alone and a decision on any alliance would be taken only after the election. The Congress has since been busy in damage control and has stressed that they are working to find a way out. Seat-sharing talks have also hit a roadblock in Punjab, where Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has said the AAP is gearing up for a solo fight.

Against this backdrop, the Bihar developments mean advantage for BJP is what was till yesterday an Opposition-ruled state. The fact that Bihar has as many as 40 Lok Sabha seats makes it very significant politically, and the bigger picture appears to be the factor that made the BJP received Mr Kumar, infamous for his flip-flops, back into the NDA fold.

Big Dent On Congress Image

Shortly after Mr Kumar’s resignation, his close aide and senior JDU leader KC Tyagi launched a scathing attack on the Congress, accusing the grand old party of trying to hijack the INDIA bloc. This, he said, had forced the JDU to quit the alliance even after Mr Kumar was at the forefront to bring Opposition forces together.

Mr Tyagi said the kind of preparations required to take on the BJP’s formidable election machinery were nowhere to be seen even months before the big election. He also alleged that while the Congress was not open to letting allies contest in its strongholds, it kept pushing for more seats in states dominated by other Opposition parties. “Congress is fighting for its survival. And it now wants to finish off regional forces,” Mr Tyagi said. He also targeted the Congress over the delay in finalising seat-sharing arrangements.

The JDU leader’s remarks plays out against regional parties’ repeated assertions that they should be given a bigger role in their bastions.

JDU’s exit from INDIA will further push Congress on the back foot as regional parties are likely to use the Bihar developments to drive a hard bargain in seat-sharing. “The alliance has ended because of Congress’s arrogance,” Mr Tyagi said, also predicting that other regional parties will also walk out of the alliance with Congress.

Responding to Mr Kumar’s flip-flop, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge has said there are many people like ‘Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram’ in politics and that the party knew this would happen. 

BJP’s Stability Narrative

Ever since the INDIA alliance was formed, the BJP has been pushing the narrative that a coalition of so many partners — who are also rivals in many states — is bound to be unstable. Last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said the NDA had brought stability to the country. With Mr Kumar, among the key faces of INDIA bloc, exiting the alliance, the BJP’s claims regarding the inherent instability of the Opposition bloc have got credence.

As the country gears up for the Lok Sabha polls next year, the BJP now appears a formidable force armed with the charisma of Prime Minister Modi and a meticulous election machinery. The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, is still struggling to put its house in order. And the recent exit of JDU will not help its public perception.