The Congress on Tuesday afternoon filed a formal complaint with the Election Commission regarding a delay in publishing the leads and results of the Haryana poll. In a brief letter the opposition party said that between 9 and 11 am there was “an unexplained slowdown in updating of results”.

“As you can imagine this allows bad faith actors to spin out narratives that undermine the process. You can see examples of it already playing out on social media. Our fear is also that such narratives can then be used by these mala fide actors to influence processes where counting is still underway, i.e., in most of the counting centres,” the Congress told the Election Commission.

“We request you to issue immediate directions to your officials to update the website with true and accurate figures, so that false news and malicious narratives can be countered immediately.”

Minutes earlier the Congress’ Jairam Ramesh said, “… we hope the Election Commission will answer our questions. The results of 10-11 rounds are out… but only four to five rounds are updated on the site.” He also flagged those “trying to build pressure by sharing outdated and misleading trends…”

The Congress had raced into an early lead in Haryana as postal votes were counted, only for the BJP to stage a thrilling comeback late morning as ballots were opened. The ruling party then raced into a lead of its own, which it has held since; at noon the BJP held 48 seats – two over the majority mark.

READ | Infighting To Jat Focus: 5 Factors Behind Congress’ Haryana Fail

Early celebrations at the Congress’ Delhi HQ ground to a halt as the party – which is set to win the first Jammu and Kashmir election in a decade – contemplated a third straight defeat in Haryana.

The party’s senior leader in the state – Kumari Selja, who is also in the Congress’ chief ministerial race – told NDTV the Election Commission will “have to answer” the question posed.

“Why is the counting going slowly? It was fine during the Lok Sabha election… so why is the counting going slowly now? It is the responsibility of the EC to tell the world why counting has slowed,” she said.

Mr Ramesh, however, insisted the party remains confident.

“There is no need to be disheartened…” he told ANI, “Mind games are being played. There is no need to be disheartened. We are going to get the mandate. Congress will form the government.”

The BJP’s Sudhanshu Trivedi responded swiftly, declaring the complaining meant the Congress had “accepted defeat”. “If Congress has started pointing fingers at Election Commission then we should understand they have accepted defeat…” he told reporters, “Per current trends I feel we are moving to an important win and Congress has started taking precautionary measures for future defeat.”

#WATCH | BJP National spokesperson, Dr. Sudhanshu Trivedi says, ” If Jairam Ramesh has already started saying this and pointing fingers at Election Commission, then we should understand that they have accepted their defeat…as per the trends going on, I feel that we are moving… https://t.co/fonKAxCzNj pic.twitter.com/mJFuJhufWA

— ANI (@ANI) October 8, 2024

The Congress had made similar complaints in June, when votes were being counted for the general election. Then Mr Ramesh implied the poll panel may have received “orders” to slow down counting.

In that case he had flagged apparent delays in publishing results for seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which account for over 120 seats between them and in which the ruling BJP (and its ally, the Janata Dal United) was facing a tough challenge from the Congress-led INDIA bloc and its allies.

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Around 9 am, one hour into the counting of votes for the Haryana polls, the Congress had surged far ahead of the BJP. Jalebis and dhols marked celebrations at the Congress headquarters in Delhi, sharply contrasting with the deserted BJP office.

But an hour later, the tables turned and the BJP was back in the game. Two more hours later, the BJP was firmly ahead and appeared headed for its biggest win in Haryana, defying exit poll predictions by a wide margin. Now the BJP headquarters was abuzz, with laddoos, jalebis and the works. Congress leaders hoped against hope for a turnaround in what had initially been a see-saw battle. Several rounds of counting are still left, but the picture is unlikely to change a lot.

Here are the five factors that contributed to the Congress setback

Congress Infighting: The Congress won 31 seats in Haryana in the 2019 election. If the current numbers hold, the party has not improved its performance substantially to enable a comeback.

One major factor is the party’s infighting and its top leaders squabbling for power. Much before the election, Congress leaders had maintained that victory was a foregone conclusion and had started jockeying for the Chief Minister post. The power tussle between Congress veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda and senior leader Kumari Selja was out in the open, requiring much damage control behind the scenes.

While the Congress struggled to project a united front in the run-up to the election, it was crystal clear that the main opposition was a divided house. Mr Hooda was given a free hand in deciding candidates or alliances. The results show this did not work.

Regional Forces, Independents Ruin It For Opposition: While the Congress is marginally ahead of the BJP in the vote-share, the trends show it has not been very successful in converting this to seats. In several seats, the margin is very low, indicating that regional parties and Independents ate into the anti-incumbency votes in Haryana, benefiting the BJP.

The regional parties, however, failed to score in this election. The INLD and the BSP currently lead in one seat each and four Independents are ahead.

Anti-Jat Consolidation: While the Congress, led by Mr Hooda, focused on Jat votes, there was apparently a counter consolidation of non-Jat votes in favour of the BJP. In the run-up to the election, NDTV had repeatedly heard a term – Jatshahi (meaning supremacy of Jats). A Congress victory would have pointed to a return of the influential community’s heft in the state. Instead, other communities appear to have voted overwhelmingly in favour of the ruling party.

BJP’s Backroom Work: Though poll analysts had written off the BJP in Haryana, silent work on the ground turned the tide in the ruling party’s favour. Union minister and BJP leader Dharmendra Pradhan was tasked with the party’s campaign for the tough election, and as the trends indicate, he has delivered in style. The BJP’s election machinery has yet again snatched victory from Congress’s jaws. Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar told NDTV that the party would definitely need to introspect why it could not convert public support into votes.

BJP’s Urban Supremacy: Over the past decade, the BJP has consolidated support in Haryana’s urban areas, such as Gurgaon and Faridabad. The Congress had expected to sweep the rural areas, but this does not appear to have happened as much as it would have liked. In Gurgaon, Faridabad and Ballabhgarh, the BJP is leading at this point.