Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar set the cat among the pigeons Thursday – first snubbing an invitation to join Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra‘, and then leaving the Congress-led INDIA bloc on edge by reaching out to the BJP. By the end of the day, Nitish Kumar – credited with coaxing the opposition into the unlikely alliance – was closer to re-aligning with the saffron party, which he dumped less than two years ago, than realising his dream of ousting Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Should it happen, there were several factors that led to the mercurial Janata Dal (United) boss’ fifth flip-flop in a decade – one that could reshape the political landscape in the BJP’s favour. Among these, sources have told NDTV, is increasing friction between the JDU and its (for now) ally in the state government – Lalu Prasad Yadav‘s Rashtriya Janata Dal.

The final straw, sources said, was a social media attack on the Chief Minister by Mr Yadav’s daughter, Rohini Acharya.

Nitish Kumar’s Clash With Lalu Yadav’s RJD

Sources said Nitish Kumar has been upset with the RJD for some time and blames his ally – which holds key ministries like Law – for impacting governance. He has also criticised RJD ministers for taking ‘important decisions’ without consulting him.

Sources also said that issue may have rumbled on a little longer had Ms Acharya not taken a pot-shot at Nitish Kumar on X.

She had responded sharply to a comment about dynastic politics; she did not name Nitish but the import was clear.

READ | Lalu Yadav’s Daughter’s Jibe At Nitish Kumar Amid ‘Dynastic Politics’ Row

She later deleted the posts but the damage, it seems, had been done, even if Nitish Kumar’s party quickly clarified that his comments were not aimed at the RJD or Lalu Yadav; two of the RJD patriarch’s sons are members of Nitish Kumar’s cabinet – Tejashwi Yadav is the Deputy Chief Minister and Tej Pratap Yadav is the Environment, Forests, and Climate Change Minister.

The BJP did not join the attack. It backed Nitish Kumar, insisting Ms Acharya had insulted him and demanded she apologise.

READ | “Lalu Yadav’s Daughter Must Apologise To Nitish Kumar”: BJP’s Telling Move

It later emerged that BJP spox and leaders had been instructed to refrain from targeting the JDU boss.

Ms Acharya’s post and the alleged governance issues weren’t the only JDU-RJD flashpoints. In November last year there were posters hailing Tejashwi Yadav as a “future Chief Minister”. These cropped up just as discord between Nitish Kumar and the INDIA bloc began to bubble to the surface, with the former jabbing the Congress over delayed seat-share talks. 

READ | Posters Calling Tejashwi Yadav ‘Future Chief Minister’ Put Up In Patna

And that is another big reason why Nitish Kumar is on the verge of (yet another) U-turn.

Nitish Kumar And The INDIA Bloc

The INDIA bloc is largely a creation of Nitish Kumar, who crisscrossed the country to pull together opposition parties, including those not always friendly with the Congress. Therefore, when the bloc chose not to recognise him as a potential PM candidate – drawing sarcastic jibes from the BJP’s Sushil Kumar Modi, his former deputy – he was miffed. 

Source have said he also questioned the Congress’ focus on Mr Gandhi’s Yatra, instead of working with its allies to divide seats (a thorny issue with disagreements in Bengal, Punjab, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh) and prep Lok Sabha poll campaigns.

NDTV Exclusive | Nitish Kumar’s Decision Spurred By This Moment At INDIA Meeting

A squabble over naming a Convenor also upset Nitish Kumar, whose nomination (by a majority) was rejected by Rahul Gandhi – who took Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee’s name – and not overruled Congress boss Mallikarjun Kharge.

What Now For Nitish Kumar?

Sources said that if Nitish Kumar does re-ally with the BJP, he will stay as Chief Minister till the next Assembly election – in 2025. The two parties will then contest that election together.

They will also contest the Lok Sabha poll together, which gives the BJP an edge in a politically key state. Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha, the most of any state except for Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Bengal. In 2019 the BJP-JDU combine won 33 seats, with the six won by the late Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party meaning the NDA swept the state.

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As India celebrates Republic Day today, the parade at the Kartavya Path in Delhi is  ‘women-centric’, indicating the roles played by women in various sectors. For the first time, the parade is heralded by 100 women artists playing Indian musical instruments. The parade commenced with the music of Sankh, Naadswaram, Nagada, etc. played by women artists. French President Emmanuel Macron is the chief guest at the parade.

The theme of this year’s Republic Day is ‘Viksit Bharat’ and ‘Bharat: Loktantra ki Matruka’, which symbolise the country’s aspirations and its role as the nurturer of democracy.

This year, India is commemorating its 75th Republic Day, marking the adoption of the constitution on January 26, 1950, and the attainment of sovereignty. The constituent assembly held its first session in December 1946 and the last session in November 1949, following which the constitution was enacted a year later with Dr BR Ambedkar as the head of the drafting committee.

Here are the LIVE Updates on 75th Republic Day Celebration:

Nitish Kumar will be sworn in as Chief Minister of Bihar for a seventh time on Sunday with support from the Bharatiya Janata Party, his on-again-off-again ally, sources told NDTV Friday, as the churn in the state’s political landscape spins to a conclusion. For its backing, the BJP will get two Deputy Chief Minister berths, which mirrors the deal after the 2020 election.

The Assembly will not be dissolved, and election will not be held, at this time, sources also said. Bihar is due to vote next year anyway, so it is understandable that neither party is in a rush. The immediate focus will be on the Lok Sabha election.

Sources said the Janata Dal (United) boss has cancelled all his engagements for January 28, including addressing a public meeting, sparking buzz he is set to reclaim his ‘paltu Kumar’ nickname by reversing his 2022 jump from Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s BJP to Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, which itself was a reprisal of his 2017 shuffle of loyalties.

NDTV has been told Nitish Kumar’s return to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will follow a detailed game-plan that will begin with the nomination of an Assembly Speaker and include re-shuffling of the cabinet – one ministerial berth for every four MLAs – to accommodate BJP leaders. Crucially, the terms of Nitish’s ghar wapsi are said to include a reduction in Lok Sabha seats offered to the JDU. In 2019 the party contested 17 and won 16 seats, but will have to be satisfied with 12-15 seats this time, given its weakened position – coming off this switch – and the need to accommodate other NDA partners.

NDTV Explains | Inside Story Of Nitish’s Stunning U-Turn-Again – Just Before Polls

Nitish’s BJP re-alignment, though not yet confirmed, gained further currency after his former deputy (and close aide), Sushil Kumar Modi’s “in politics, doors are not permanently closed” comment. “Politics is a game of possibilities, anything can happen,” Mr Modi, replaced by Tarkishore Yadav and Renu Devi after the 2020 election, said. Now a Rajya Sabha MP, he has been a frequent critic of Nitish Kumar since an apparent breakdown in ties, making his ‘open doors’ remark significant.

The BJP ghar wapsi has triggered mixed reactions from Bihar’s political players and, according to a second set of sources, a divide within Nitish Kumar’s party. Lalan Singh, deposed as the JDU boss by Nitish last month, is understood to be against dropping the RJD, while a group led by Sanjay Jha and Ashok Choudhary is pushing for a tie-up with the BJP.

Former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and his Hindustan Awam Morcha – for now a JDU ally and part of the state government – are also being courted, with junior Union Home Minister Nityanand Rai reportedly tasked with getting that deal done. Mr Manjhi has been cryptic so far, only saying he had predicted Nitish Kumar’s jump.

“Therefore, after breaking alliance, he may contest Lok Sabha elections independently or join other alliance…” he said.

The INDIA bloc has not lost hope, at least not publicly. A Bihar Congress leader, Prem Chandra Mishra, told ANI, “I can say with confidence Nitish Kumar will remain with the alliance… (he) has resolved to throw BJP out of power, and we trust him.”

The RJD is also (publicly) optimistic; party spokesperson Shakti Yadav said the tie-up talk reflected a “scared” BJP.

Nitish set the cat among the pigeons Thursday – first snubbing an invitation to join Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra’, and then leaving the Congress-led INDIA bloc on edge by reaching out to the BJP. By the day’s end, he – credited with coaxing the opposition into the unlikely alliance – was closer to re-aligning with the BJP than being able to oust Mr Modi.

NDTV Explains | The ‘Final Straw’ – A Tweet – That Led To Shock Nitish Kumar Move

Should, as is now most likely, Nitish Kumar re-align with the BJP, there were several factors that would have led to his political fifth flip-flop in 11 years – one that could reshape the state’s political landscape in the BJP’s favour.

Among these are friction with the RJD, amplified by the (now deleted) social media posts by Lalu Yadav’s daughter, Rohini Acharya, and discord within the INDIA group, where Nitish’s name had been snubbed as both a PM candidate and Convenor..