Amid reports that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is gearing up for his flip-flop in a decade and is about to join hands with the BJP again, a video clip from January last year has resurfaced on social media.

“The question does not arise. Mar jaana qabool hai lekin unke saath jaana humko kabhi qabool nahin hai (I’d rather die than tie up with them),” Mr Kumar had told reporters while responding to questions on parting ways with the BJP in August 2022 and reuniting with RJD and Congress under Mahagathbandhan.

बीजेपी से आहत होकर जब राजद के साथ सरकार बनायी उस वक्त श्री नीतीश कुमार ने कहा मैं बीजेपी के साथ कभी नहीं जाऊंगा।

यह लक्ष्मण रेखा है जिसे @NitishKumar जी कभी पार नहीं करेंगे।

आशा है अपने प्रतिज्ञा का पालन वे जीवनभर करेंगे।@Jduonline pic.twitter.com/9hYqBsk12a

— I.P. Singh (@IPSinghSp) January 26, 2024

As Mr Kumar made the remarks, his deputy and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav stood next to him. The eight-time Chief Minister had then said his decision to revive the alliance with the BJP was a “mistake”.

“Listen carefully. They (BJP) went through so much effort. They slapped cases against Tejashwi and his father to get me on board. Now again, they are trying to get after them. These people keep doing such things,” he had said.

His remarks had come in response to Bihar BJP leaders, who had said they would not be “cheated” by Mr Kumar again. “Nitish Kumar has grown hugely unpopular. It was his unpopularity that had caused his JDU to do badly in the assembly polls of 2020 when we did much better. Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed magnanimity in deciding to stick to the promise made before elections and Nitish Kumar, the habitual betrayer that he is, abused the PM’s trust,” then Bihar BJP chief Sanjay Jaiswal had said after Mr Kumar’s flip-flop.

“Of course, the chief minister has the proclivity to oscillate like a pendulum. But we are not going to be cheated by him again,” he had added. A month later, in February last year, Home Minister Amit Shah had said the doors of BJP have closed forever for Mr Kumar.

A year on, both Mr Kumar and the BJP are reportedly making preparations for another reunion, months ahead of the Lok Sabha election. The INDIA bloc, of which Mr Kumar is a key leader, will be left red-faced if the JDU leader exits the alliance so close to the general election.

The video with his “would rather die…” remarks is now being circulated to underline his repeated flip-flops across the political aisle. Sharing the video, Samajwadi Party leader IP Singh said he hopes Mr Kumar “will not cross the Lakshman Rekha” and stay true to this word. Many in the comments section pointed how another flip-flop will only hit Mr Kumar’s political image. 

Mr Kumar may meet Bihar Governor Rajendra Arlekar at 11.30 am today and resign as Chief Minister, sources have said.

In his fifth flip-flop in a decade, Nitish Kumar has resigned as Bihar Chief Minister after days of political speculation. Mr Kumar met Bihar Governor Rajendra Arlekar this morning and handed over his resignation.

“I have resigned as Chief Minister and ended this government. I was getting suggestions from all around. I had quit an earlier alliance for a new tie-up. But the situation was not okay. So I have resigned,” he told reporters.

On what comes next, he said “parties will meet and a decision will be taken”.

He also referred to the INDIA alliance and how things were not moving in a positive direction.

This is Mr Kumar’s resignation in a political career, which saw his rise as a model of good governance before his repeated jumps across the political aisle hit is popularity and his party JDU’s electoral weight.

Mr Kumar is now expected to meet his party’s legislators before teaming up with the BJP again.

A year back, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said that the doors of the BJP have closed for JDU leader Nitish Kumar. And now, amid developments that have shaken up the political circles months ahead of Lok Sabha polls, eight-time Chief Minister Mr Kumar is reportedly gearing up to join hands with the BJP again. This would be his fifth flip-flop in a decade, which has seen a swift decline in his popularity and party’s electoral performance.

BJP MLAs in Bihar have given letters of support to Nitish Kumar, according to sources. The party MLAs also held a meeting in Patna today, shortly before Mr Kumar met Governor Rajendra Arlekar and put in his papers.

The big question, however, is why the BJP is ready to take him back into the NDA fold after his repeated jumps across the political aisle. NDTV looks at some of the factors behind the BJP’s decision

A Blow To INDIA Bloc

Nitish Kumar has been one of the key faces of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc and was at the forefront of forging the united front to take on the formidable BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh has said it was Mr Kumar who convened INDIA meetings and that the Opposition bloc was expecting him to fight the BJP till the end. A flip-flop at this stage will leave the INDIA bloc red-faced months before the Lok Sabha polls. It would also give credence to the BJP’s contention that the Opposition bloc is an unstable alliance.

For the BJP, a flip-flop also means an advantage in Bihar, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats and was being seen as an INDIA stronghold so far. The ties between Congress and Trinamool Congress in Bengal, and Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab are already strained over seat-sharing talks. An end to the RJD-JDU alliance in Bihar at this stage would mean more trouble for INDIA. While a section of state BJP leaders have been against taking Mr Kumar back, the central leadership may have green-lighted the move after looking at the larger picture.

The State Equation

Over the past decade, Mr Kumar has managed to hold on to the Chief Minister post despite his repeated flip-flops. His popularity and his party’s electoral performance, however, has seen a consistent decline. His image of Sushashan Babu – the development man – has now been replaced as that of ‘paltu kumar’ – the one who keeps switching sides

From 115 seats in the 2010 Bihar polls to 71 in 2015 to just 43 in 2020, JDU’s strength in the Assembly has been on a slide.

This has meant that despite Mr Kumar being in the Chief Minister’s chair, his party is the third-largest force in the Assembly. Be it RJD or BJP, Mr Kumar’s autonomy has declined because it is his ally who has the more numbers. So the BJP knows that even if lets Mr Kumar retain the Chief Minister post, it holds greater control than JDU in the Bihar government’s decisions. That way, it is a win-win situation for BJP.

The Perception Game

Mr Kumar’s flip-flops over the past decade has adversely impacted his public perception. The BJP knows that it stands to lose little in the perception game because, unlike in Madhya Pradesh or Maharashtra, it is not a section of ruling party MLAs making a switch. In those states, the BJP was accused of engineering mutinies to topple governments. Here, with Mr Kumar repeatedly changing allies, the BJP will not be seen as the villain.

BJP leaders, predictably, have gone back to their “jungle raj” rhetoric to explain why they are ok with teaming with Mr Kumar again. “Jungle Raj” is a term used by the BJP to refer to the corruption- and crime-tainted tenure of the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD.

“We are the biggest party in Bihar. We are alert and are tracking the developments closely. We are seized of the shifting political sands in Bihar. We will not take a step back when it comes to discharging our responsibilities. We cannot leave Bihar in the hands of ‘Jungle Raj’,” BJP national spokesperson Ajay Alok told news agency ANI.