The Jannayak Janta Party on Wednesday morning issued a three-line whip to its MLAs in the Haryana Assembly, ordering them to be absent from House proceedings for the day.
The MLAs were directed to miss a floor test meant to assess the majority status of the new Bharatiya Janata Party-led government. The whip has been seen by as illegal, as no party can stop participation in a democratic exercise; they can only direct votes on party lines.
Should the JJP MLAs – on paper there are 10, though there are reports that at least five will breakaway, form a new group, and join the BJP – follow the whip, it will bring down the majority mark in the 90-member House from 46 to 41, which is the BJP’s current strength. A lowered majority mark will ensure the BJP passes; although even without that it has the numbers thanks to support from independents.
Haryana witnessed a swift change of government over the past 48 hours, with senior BJP leader Manohar Lal Khattar and the entire cabinet, which included three from the JJP, quitting Tuesday.
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The party’s state boss, Nayab Singh Saini, was chosen to replace him and took his oath hours later, with four BJP MLAs (from the just-disbanded cabinet) by his side.
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In line with the rules, the floor test was then ordered for 11 am the following day.
Ahead of this floor test, the BJP had claimed the support of 48 MLAs – its 41 plus the seven independent lawmakers. This is not including the five expected to join from the JJP.
The proximate cause of the break-up of Mr Khattar’s government was the failure of the BJP-JJP alliance, which was formed after the 2019 Assembly election, in which the former emerged as the single-largest party but fell six seats short of an outright majority.
The party eventually formed the government with support from the JJP, which was given a few ministerial berths and party boss Dushyant Chautala was made Deputy Chief Minister. Mr Chautala maintained radio silence through most of yesterday, emerging only after the swearing-in to thank the people of Haryana.
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The alliance reportedly broke this week due to failed seat-sharing talks for the 2024 Lok Sabha election; the JJP wanted two of the state’s 10 seats, but the BJP would only give one.
Sources, however, have told NDTV the BJP also had one eye on the apparent renaissance of eternal rivals Congress in the heartland state; last week MP Brijendra Singh quit the BJP – for “compelling political reasons” – joined the Congress after being denied a ticket for his seat.
Sources said the party hopes that a split from the JJP will help break-up the Jat votes between the state party and the Congress, both of whom have influence over a community that accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the state population.
The state is also home to a large community of farmers, who are unlikely to offer significant support to the BJP given tension over the MSP, or minimum support price, issue. Sources said the BJP is hoping, instead, to maximise votes from the remaining 80 per cent.
There were also rumours – which might now prove to be true – that Mr Khattar would be re-assigned to a Lok Sabha contest. The two-time former Chief Minister is likely to fight from the Kurukshetra seat that was held by Nayab Saini but will now become vacant.
Mr Khattar’s Lok Sabha bow fits with the BJP’s gameplan in recent elections of fielding big-name leaders for key seats to boost the winnability factor and create a buzz.
Also, Haryana has only 10 Lok Sabha seats and given the BJP’s ruthlessness in replacing sitting MPs to avoid the anti-incumbency bias, there may have been concern this could leave too many disgruntled senior leaders heading for the exit and strengthening rivals.
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