The BJP has an edge in the race to win control of Rajasthan, according to early exit polls data released Thursday evening. The Congress faces the daunting task of beating the state’s anti-incumbency trend, which has voted out the ruling party in every election for the past three decades.
According to the Jan Ki Baat poll, the BJP will win between 100 and 122 seats, while the Congress and its allies must be content with 62-85. The TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit poll is more favourable for the ruling party, giving it between 90 and 100 seats, but still gives the BJP the win with 100-110.
There are 200 seats in the Rajasthan Assembly and the majority mark is 101.
A health warning – exit polls are often wrong.
In 2018 the Congress benefitted from the ‘revolving door’ policy and won 100 seats to the BJP’s 73. This was a significant margin even though vote shares were almost equal. The BJP’s haul underlined the strength of the anti-incumbency factor; in 2013 it won 163 seats and 45 per cent of the votes.
The BJP’s 90-seat bleed was snapped up by its rivals,
The Congress did not, though, win majority on its own and needed support from Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which won six seats, before Ashok Gehlot could be sworn in as Chief Minister.
