The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party are on the verge of a deal to divide Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha seats, sources have said. This comes a day after the former agreed a deal with the Samajwadi Party for the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh – the first major accord between members of the INDIA opposition bloc.

The Congress and the AAP – who delivered INDIA’s first win (after the Supreme Court intervened) in the Chandigarh mayoral polls – have reportedly agreed a four-three split in the latter’s favour.

A statement is expected soon, but, if true, the agreement is another significant step forward for the Congress-led bloc, which has struggled to convince with just weeks to go for the election.

Can Delhi Deal Pave Way For Punab?

Whether the Congress-AAP’s Delhi’s alliance will help break the deadlock in Punjab is not yet clear. Hope of an agreement in that state – which the AAP won off the Congress in February 2022 – were dashed after Arvind Kejriwal last week said his party would contest all 13 seats in the border state.

The AAP boss took a swipe as he did so, declaring the people of Punjab would be hard-pressed to remember any “good work” by the previous administration. He also made it clear his party intends to field a candidate for the sole Lok Sabha seat in Chandigarh, held by the BJP’s Kirron Kher since 2014.

READ | In Arvind Kejriwal’s Punjab Announcement, Setback To INDIA Bloc Unity

The Congress-AAP’s inability to find common ground in Punjab has underlined tension within the INDIA bloc, with smaller/regional members unable to agree seat-share deals with the former party.

In Punjab that inability has been exacerbated by opposition by their state leaders. Last month one of the Congress’ top state leaders, Partap Singh Bajwa, told NDTV it is not possible for the two to be allies.

“This is what Congress cadre in Punjab (always) wanted… (In Punjab) they are in the government and we are the principal opposition. How can both of us get together…,” Mr Bajwa said.

READ | “Thank You, Mann Sahab“: Congress Leader On AAP’s Solo Plan

“If we get together… anti-incumbency vote (will go) either to BJP or Akali Dal…” he had warned.

Set up in June, to unite the opposition and defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party – the opposition grouping has already lost a key member – Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and, potentially Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtra Lok Dal – both to the BJP.

Bengal’s ruling Trinamool has pulled back to the fringes of the bloc, snubbing seat-share talks after incessant attacks on Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee by the Congress’ Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.

The Congress-Samajwadi Party Deal

An agreement with the Samajwadi Party also seemed unlikely, as recently as 48 hours ago.

That, however, was turned around after Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra stepped in; sources told NDTV she reached out personally to SP boss Akhilesh Yadav to work out the minutiae of a deal.

Eventually, the two agreed to a 63-17 divide of UP’s 80 seats, with the Congress getting its family bastions of Raebareli and Amethi, as well as Mr Modi’s constituency of Varanasi.

READ | INDIA Bloc’s UP Seat Sharing Pact Finalised, Congress Gets 17

Candidates have not been named yet, but there is already speculation this could be Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s much-awaited electoral debut, with all three a possibility.

READ | After Sonia Gandhi’s Rajya Sabha Shift, Buzz Around Her Raebareli Seat

Sonia Gandhi shifting from the Lok Sabha to the Rajya Sabha leaves Raebareli open, Rahul Gandhi likely remaining with Kerala’s Wayanad means Amethi is also an option. And, of course she could be fielded from Varanasi to go head-to-head with the Prime Minister in what will be an epic political battle.

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India’s GDP is likely to touch $5 trillion over the next four years and will overtake Japan and Germany to become the third largest economy by 2027, Jefferies said on Wednesday.

In a note, the investment banking company said that India will become nearly a $10 trillion market by 2030 and that it will be “impossible” for large global investors to ignore the country.

“From the ninth largest economy a decade back, India has now become the 5th largest economy with a nominal GDP of $3.4 trillion. On a PPP basis, the GDP is already much higher at $13.2 trillion, making it the third largest economy in the world,” the Jefferies said.

It said that India’s GDP grew even as there was an impact of several major reforms like bankruptcy law, GST implementation, Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA) and demonetization.

These reforms were “good” for the long-term but “adversely impacted” near-term growth, it added.

“India is not only projected to grow at 6% over the next five years, the country will also be a standout in a world where most large economies are expected to see their growth rates decline.

“We believe that rising growth outperformance, particularly against the developed world, should help India climb up the world’s GDP ranks quickly to the third spot before this decade ends,” Jefferies said.

India’s Market Cap To Become $10 Trillion By 2030

Jefferies said that it believes that Indian equity markets will continue to deliver 8%-10% dollar returns over the next five to seven years.

“Structural domestic flows arising from shift of savings to equities and potential listing of large unicorn in India can drive the market cap past $10 trillion by 2030,” the company said.

READ | As Japan And UK Shrink Into Recession, An Opportunity For India

“Even though India is fifth largest in terms of market cap, its ranking in the Bloomberg World Index is eighth with a weight of just 2.0% which, in our view, means there is tremendous scope for foreign investors to increase investment into the fastest growing country in the world,” it added.

A rise in country weight in a global fund could make Indian stocks a must-have for a much more diverse set of equity investors, Jefferies said.

On February 13, 21-year-old Shubhkaran Singh left his home in Baloke village in Punjab’s Bathinda district to join the farmers’ march to Delhi. Eight days later, he was killed in clashes between the farmers and police near the Khanauri border separating Punjab and Haryana.

The exact cause of Shubhkaran’s death is not known yet. Farmers have blocked the autopsy, demanding that the government announce compensation for his family. They are demanding a central government job as part of the compensation.

Neighbours said Shubhkaran’s family has about 2 acres of land. His mother has died, and his father has been suffering from a mental illness. He has two sisters, one is married, and the other is a student. The young farmer, they said, had taken a loan for his sister’s wedding. A neighbour described the family as “poor”.  

The farmers are marching to Delhi over several demands, including a law to guarantee a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for their crops, pension benefits and crop insurance. MSP is a price fixed by the government and is aimed at protecting farmers from distress sale of their produce. 

Determined to not let the farmers proceed to the national capital, Haryana police has fortified its borders with Punjab. The cops are firing teargas shells to keep the farmers off. Farmers have alleged that rubber bullets were also used during the clashes yesterday. The cops, on their part, have said multiple policemen suffered injuries after protesters threw stones and sticks.

Farmer leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal yesterday said Haryana police was using force against the farmers, even as talks between them and the government to find a way out of the impasse are on. The farmers have rejected the Centre’s offer on MSP, arguing that the formula it is proposing would ensure subsistence but no income. The march to Delhi has been halted for two days as farmers plan the next move. 

On why farmers are blocking the autopsy, Mr Dallewal put forward two conditions. “The Punjab government should declare him a shaheed (martyr) and provide benefits accordingly. And, the government should constitute a five-member board to conduct the post-mortem examination.”

The young farmer’s death has, meanwhile, sparked a massive political storm. Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has warned of appropriate action against the officials concerned, setting the stage for a Punjab vs Haryana face-off.

Mr Mann is drawing fire at home, with the Opposition in Punjab accusing the Aam Aadmi Party government of collaborating with Haryana police to stop the farmers.

“Farmers and political parties had been crying themselves hoarse, telling you to stop Haryana police from teargasing farmers with drones in Punjab territory. You needed to book Haryana police when they were invading farmers in your state. Why didn’t you? Instead, you and your police kept obeying Haryana government to stop your farmers from using their own machinery and vehicles,” Shiromani Akali Dal leader Sukhbir Singh Badal has said, holding Mr Mann “morally and legally responsible” for Shubhkaran’s death.

State Congress chief Amarinder Raja Singh Warring has said the Chief Minister’s “ignorance has resulted in the brutal murder of a 21-year-old farmer”. “It is about time that you, being the Chief Minister of Punjab, stand by the farmers of our state,” he added.