Congress leader Sonia Gandhi’s Lok Sabha-to-Rajya Sabha shift this year – from representing Raebareli in Uttar Pradesh to the state of Rajasthan – was supposed to signal a change in the leadership structure of a party many see as struggling for relevance before the general election.
Ms Gandhi – a 25-year veteran of the Lower House and the face of the Congress, in parliament and outside – this week said she would not seek re-election from Raebareli, a Congress stronghold previously held by Feroze Gandhi and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
The 77-year-old Ms Gandhi this morning said “health and increasing age” meant she would not contest the Lok Sabha election, and she called on the people of Raebareli to “be with my family”.
That the Congress will field, so long as is possible, a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family from Raebareli (particularly after the 2019 loss of its other UP stronghold, Amethi, to the BJP) is a given.
The question, then, is which member of the family will stand from Raebareli.
There is widespread speculation Ms Gandhi’s daughter, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, will be that choice, and make her electoral debut from a seat once held by her grandmother, Indira Gandhi; that choice seems all the more plausible given the striking resemblance between the two.
Ms Gandhi Vadra, though, has ben here before – on the edge of an electoral contest. Fielding her from Raebareli might seem like a safe bet, but memories of Rahul Gandhi’s Amethi loss – to a strident campaign by Smriti Irani – must linger, and give the party pause.
A second successive defeat for a Gandhi will be a disastrous turn-up.
There is also speculation Ms Gandhi Vadra might, in fact, contest the election, but not from Raebareli. She might, instead opt to face Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi.
Often asked this question in the past, Ms Gandhi Vadra has repeatedly said she is ready to do as the Congress asks and requires, an answer that has never fully settled the matter.
The only other feasible option is Rahul Gandhi, who offset his Amethi loss by winning from Kerala’s Wayanad. There is no indication, however, at present, Mr Gandhi, also busy with the ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra’, is considering returning to the volatile politics of UP.
Effectively, that leaves the Congress with a twin problem – who to field from Amethi (most likely against a Smriti Irani raring to repeat her giant-killer feat) and who to position in neighbouring Raebareli.
In her open letter Ms Gandhi underlined the “close relationship” her family, and the party, has with the seat, saying, “Our family’s ties… run very deep… you made my father-in-law, Feroze Gandhi, win… after him, you made my mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi your own.”
Ms Gandhi also underlined her emotional connect with the people of Raebareli, remembering she stood only a few years after her husband, former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, was assassinated, and after having also lost her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi.
“After losing my mother-in-law and my life partner… I came to you and you spread your arms for me. In the last two elections, you stood by me like a rock… I can never forget this.”
The Congress has been beaten thrice here – the first time was in 1977, when post-Emergency elections took the seat from Indira Gandhi and gave it to the Janata Party.
Ashok Singh of the BJP then claimed back-to-back shock wins in 1996 and 1998, when Indira Gandhi’s cousins, Vikram Kaul and Deepa Kaul, were fielded.
