Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar appears set for a second political volte-face in less than three years and is likely to return to an alliance with the BJP today. He will meet the Governor at 11.30 am and resign to start the process, sources said.

Nitish Kumar is expected to tender his resignation today, sources said. It comes amid speculation that Nitish Kumar and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar may exit the 28-party Opposition bloc formed to take on the BJP-led Central government.

BJP MLAs and MPs will meet today at 10 am at the party office in Patna to further chalk out the strategy over the latest political situation in Bihar. BJP President JP Nadda along with few others BJP leaders will also reach Patna by special charter flight at 3 pm today.

A meeting of JDU MLAs is scheduled at Nitish Kumar’s residence at 10 am and BJP leaders will meet Nitish Kumar at his residence at around 11 am. Nitish Kumar may handover his resignation around 2 pm today, as per sources. 

Nitish Kumar will sack ministers belonging to alliance partner and Lalu Yadav’s party Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) today, sources told NDTV.

The BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), have also finalised a seat-sharing agreement for the Lok Sabha election due in three months.

All BJP MLAs in Bihar have already given letters of support to Nitish Kumar, sources have said.

Here are the LIVE updates on Bihar Politics crisis:

Nitish Kumar is expected to resign as Bihar Chief Minister today, ending his party Janata Dal(United)’s two-year association with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Mr Kumar is likely to return to an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has already collected support letters for the JD(U) leader. The BJP and JD(U) have also finalised a seat-sharing agreement for the Lok Sabha election due in three months.

Nitish Kumar snapped ties with the BJP in 2022 and formed the government in a ‘Mahagatbandhan’ with Lalu Yadav’s RJD, the Congress, and Left parties.

RJD is currently the single-largest party in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, with 79 MLAs. But even the RJD is 43 short of the halfway mark – 122.

The BJP is the second biggest party in the assembly with a strength of 78 MLAs.

Here is how the numbers stack up in the Bihar assembly:

RJD – 79 MLAs

BJP – 78 MLAs

JD(U) – 45

Congress – 19

CPI (M-L) – 12

Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) – 4

CPI – 2

CPI (M) – 2

AIMIM – 1

Independent MLA – 1

Can JD(U) And BJP Form The Government In Bihar?

If Nitish Kumar and the BJP join hands, they would end up with 123 MLAs, just one more than the halfway mark needed to form the government. The BJP also has the support of the Hindustani Awam Morcha, which would bring four more MLAs into the fold, making it easier for the alliance to prove majority.

BJP sources have told NDTV that all the party’s legislators in the state have already given letters of support to Nitish Kumar. Instead of Nitish Kumar stepping down as Chief Minister, the BJP is also considering reshuffling the Bihar cabinet by replacing RJD ministers with its own MLAs.

What Happens To ‘Mahagatbandhan’ If Nitish Kumar Exits?

If JD(U) breaks away from the ruling coalition, they would fall short by eight MLAs. RJD leader and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav though has hinted that they form to stake claim to form the government.

With the backing of Congress and the left parties, the coalition would have 114 MLAs – eight short of the halfway mark.

According to sources, Tejashwi Yadav told party leaders that the game is yet to begin in Bihar.

“Whatever remained undone in two decades, we managed to get it done within a short time- be it jobs, caste census, increasing reservation, etc. ‘Bihar mein abhi khel hona baki hain’ (The game is yet to begin in Bihar)” Mr Yadav reportedly said.

Amid reports that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is gearing up for his flip-flop in a decade and is about to join hands with the BJP again, a video clip from January last year has resurfaced on social media.

“The question does not arise. Mar jaana qabool hai lekin unke saath jaana humko kabhi qabool nahin hai (I’d rather die than tie up with them),” Mr Kumar had told reporters while responding to questions on parting ways with the BJP in August 2022 and reuniting with RJD and Congress under Mahagathbandhan.

बीजेपी से आहत होकर जब राजद के साथ सरकार बनायी उस वक्त श्री नीतीश कुमार ने कहा मैं बीजेपी के साथ कभी नहीं जाऊंगा।

यह लक्ष्मण रेखा है जिसे @NitishKumar जी कभी पार नहीं करेंगे।

आशा है अपने प्रतिज्ञा का पालन वे जीवनभर करेंगे।@Jduonline pic.twitter.com/9hYqBsk12a

— I.P. Singh (@IPSinghSp) January 26, 2024

As Mr Kumar made the remarks, his deputy and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav stood next to him. The eight-time Chief Minister had then said his decision to revive the alliance with the BJP was a “mistake”.

“Listen carefully. They (BJP) went through so much effort. They slapped cases against Tejashwi and his father to get me on board. Now again, they are trying to get after them. These people keep doing such things,” he had said.

His remarks had come in response to Bihar BJP leaders, who had said they would not be “cheated” by Mr Kumar again. “Nitish Kumar has grown hugely unpopular. It was his unpopularity that had caused his JDU to do badly in the assembly polls of 2020 when we did much better. Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed magnanimity in deciding to stick to the promise made before elections and Nitish Kumar, the habitual betrayer that he is, abused the PM’s trust,” then Bihar BJP chief Sanjay Jaiswal had said after Mr Kumar’s flip-flop.

“Of course, the chief minister has the proclivity to oscillate like a pendulum. But we are not going to be cheated by him again,” he had added. A month later, in February last year, Home Minister Amit Shah had said the doors of BJP have closed forever for Mr Kumar.

A year on, both Mr Kumar and the BJP are reportedly making preparations for another reunion, months ahead of the Lok Sabha election. The INDIA bloc, of which Mr Kumar is a key leader, will be left red-faced if the JDU leader exits the alliance so close to the general election.

The video with his “would rather die…” remarks is now being circulated to underline his repeated flip-flops across the political aisle. Sharing the video, Samajwadi Party leader IP Singh said he hopes Mr Kumar “will not cross the Lakshman Rekha” and stay true to this word. Many in the comments section pointed how another flip-flop will only hit Mr Kumar’s political image. 

Mr Kumar may meet Bihar Governor Rajendra Arlekar at 11.30 am today and resign as Chief Minister, sources have said.