The rebels in Syria fought against the Bashar al-Assad regime for 13 years but failed to dislodge him from power. And then in a lightning offensive that lasted less than 13 days, the five-decade rule of the Assad family was decimated and the President was forced to flee the country. Behind the rebels’ shocking advance was careful planning, the changing power balance in the Middle East, and tacit backing from a key regional player.

The Timing

The rebels knew that the Assad regime was at its most vulnerable. Over the past decade, the Syrian President had used the firepower of its key allies, Russia and Iran, to beat back any resistance to his regime. But Moscow was caught up with its war in Ukraine and Tehran was fighting Israel. With Assad’s allies distracted, Damascus was fully exposed. Also, Hezbollah, which played a key role in Assad’s fight against the rebels, suffered major losses after Tel Aviv wiped out its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other commanders. With a ceasefire coming into force in Lebanon on November 27, Hezbollah licked its wounds and refused to fight Assad’s war with rebels. Syria was also battling internal issues. A source told news agency Reuters that tanks and planes had no fuel due to large-scale corruption and loot. Celebrating the fall of the Assad regime, some Syria residents said many Syrians had fled to Lebanon because they did not want to fight their countrymen. The Syrian forces were, therefore, unequipped, low on morale and bereft of allies. The rebels knew this was their chance and they took it.

Turkey’s Role

As the Assad regime collapsed, Turkey’s deputy minister for foreign affairs, Nuh Yilmaz, said at a conference in Bahrain that Ankara was not behind the offensive and did not provide consent. He said it was concerned about instability.

But there is no way the rebels would have moved ahead with a signal from Turkey. About six months ago, the rebels communicated to Ankara their plans for a major offensive and felt they had received its tacit approval, two sources have told Reuters. Turkey has long backed the Syrian opposition, although it considers the main force in the rebel alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terror group.

The all-out offensive, it is learnt, was the brainchild of HTS and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani. HTS started as Nusra Front with links with al-Qaeda. Golani is designated a terrorist in several countries, including the US, UK and Turkey. Over the past decade, however, he and his organisation have tried to soften its image.

Turkey’s foreign and defence ministries have not responded directly to Reuters questions about whether there was an understanding between HTS and Ankara about the Aleppo operation. A Turkish official told Reuters that HTS “does not receive orders or direction from us (and) does not coordinate its operations with us either.” The official said that “in that sense” it would not be correct to say that the operation in Aleppo was carried out with Turkey’s approval.

Recep Erdogan and Bashar al Assad back in 2011

Ankara’s Interests

The war in Syria has driven a wave of refugees into Turkey and this has become a domestic issue too. For long, it has urged the Bashar al-Assad regime, once a close ally, for a political solution to the problem but got little response. Damascus saw this as a weakness and insisted on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria. This was not an option for Ankara because it feared this would lead to a further influx of refugees. And then Moscow pulled the last straw. Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia’s special envoy to Syria, called Turkey an “occupying force” in Syria and said it was “too soon” for talks between Ankara and Damascus.

The rebels sensed that the Recep Tayyip Erdogan dispensation was not happy with Damascus rebuffing its outreach. A Syrian opposition source told Reuters that the rebels had shown Turkey details of the planning after Ankara’s attempts to engage Assad failed. The message was: “That other path hasn’t worked for years – so try ours. You don’t have to do anything, just don’t intervene.”

As Damascus sees a regime change, Turkey has reason to be relieved. Its tacit support to the rebels may pave the way for peace on the border and also help it eliminate the resistance from groups such as the YPG that it has fought for years.

Turkey now hopes that peace in Syria will create an atmosphere conducive to the return of refugees. There is, however, a risk: if the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime starts another phase of instability, Ankara may be dealing with another refugee crisis.

Israel fighter jets conducted aerial attacks on several targets inside Syria

Israel Another Winner

Another winner in the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime is Israel. The regime change in Damascus has blocked the route through which Iran provided arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tel Aviv can now effectively wipe out an already-weakened Hezbollah. Moving fast after the rebels took Damascus, Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck dozens of targets across Syria, taking out weaponry that it feared could fall into the hands of the rebels, the Times of Israel reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed the change in Syria, calling it a historic day. He also said its offensive against Hezbollah was instrumental in the regime change in Syria.

“This collapse is a direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its suppression. But it also means we have to take action against possible threats. One of them is the collapse of the Separation of Forces agreement from 1974 between Israel and Syria. This agreement held for 50 years. Last night it collapsed,” he said.

Israel has now taken charge of a demilitarised buffer zone on its border with Syria. “This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found. We’re going to follow events very carefully. If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that’s our desire. But if we do not, we’ll do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel,” Netanyahu said.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri arrives in Dhaka on Monday morning to discuss bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh, officials said. This is the first high-level official visit after the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus took over in Bangladesh.

The visit comes amid recent reports of rise in violence against minorities in Bangladesh and the arrest of spiritual leader Chinmoy Krishna Das in Chittagong.

The delegation led by the foreign secretaries of the two countries is expected to discuss the overall issues of bilateral relations by participating in the Foreign Office Consultation (FOC) mechanism established between the two countries.

On December 4, Press Secretary to the Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government, Shafiqul Alam, said that the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries would hold talks on issues of mutual interest.

In September this year, the Foreign Adviser (Minister) of the interim government of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain had met the Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. They decided to maintain “good working relationship” and also decided to hold FOC between India and Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, reports of attacks on minorties continue in Bangladesh. On December 6, another Hindu temple was allegedly set on fire in the outskirts of Dhaka. The Mahabhagya Lakshminarayan Mandir, at Dhor village, in North of Dhaka came under attack on late Friday night.

Babul Ghosh, supervisor of the temple said that a complaint has been filed against unidentified miscreants for burning down his ancestral temple.

Speaking with ANI, Mr Ghosh said that the attackers poured petrol on the idols while he was not present at the house and ran away on hearing his footsteps.He further alleged that the attackers had some “ulterior motives” other than burning the idols.

Spiritual leader Chinmony Krishna Das also continues to be under arrest on alleged sedition charges. The Ministry of External Affairs has pressed the Bangladesh interim government to ensure that the legal rights of the individual are respected and that his trial is fair and transparent.

Chinmoy Krishna Das, who is associated with the Sammilita Sanatani Jagaran Jote, was arrested in Dhaka on November 25 on ‘sedition’ charges. The arrest followed a complaint file on October 31 by a local politician that accused Chinmoy Das and others of disrespecting Bangladesh’s national flag during a rally of the Hindu community. On December 3, a Bangladesh court set January 2, 2025 as the next date of hearing in the case.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

A witchdoctor in Ahmedabad, Navalsinh Chavda, died in police custody after allegedly confessing to killing 12 people, including family members. He poisoned them to avoid medical expenses and end domestic disputes. Chavda’s death is also under investigation, raising suspicions. He was apprehended while attempting another ritualistic murder.