A week from now, America will know who their next President will be. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has been a bitter one, which has left much of the US divided and polarised. A group that has emerged as a significant one is that of Indian-Americans.

The more than 5.2 million-strong Indian-American community, eligible to vote, has emerged as a group that can potentially swing the election outcome towards either candidate.

Now the second-largest immigrant group in the United States, the Indian-American community have historically favored the Democratic Party in overwhelming numbers. However, the Republican Party has long felt that the community’s votes are significant and hence the party has changed its policies on the economy, social issues, and stewardship of the US-India bilateral relationship.

This election, there has been greater focus on the Indian-American community since there is a possibility that for the first time in American history, a candidate of Indian heritage – Democratic nominee Kamala Harris – could occupy the highest office in the country.

As people of Indian heritage play an increasingly important electoral role in deciding who will be the next US President and how that will shape America’s future, an extensive survey was conducted by the Carnegie group to understand how Indian-Americans will vote.

THE SURVEY, THE FINDINGS

The survey, conducted in partnership with research and analytics firm YouGov, finds that as the November 5 elections approach, Indian-Americans remain solidly behind the Democratic Party, though there is an uptick in support for Republican candidate Donald Trump as well.

The survey shows that from Kamala Harris’s perspective, six out of every ten Indian-Americans favour the Democrats, while from Donald Trump’s point of view, one in every three persons of Indian heritage is likely to vote for him.

The survey also suggests that there is a considerable gender factor to it too. “Sixty-seven per cent of Indian American women intend to vote for Harris while 53 percent of men, a significantly smaller share, say they plan to vote for Harris,” it shows, adding that “Twenty-two per cent of women intend to vote for Trump while a significantly larger share of men, 39 percent, plan to cast their ballots for him.”

The survey should also come as a worry for Democrats as it shows that “Forty-seven per cent of respondents identify as Democrats, down from 56 per cent in 2020.” For the same time period, the share of Republican supporters has held steady while the percentage of independents has grown.

It also reveals that the Indian heritage factor does not always work for every candidate. People who took the survey showed that Indian-American Republicans such as Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Usha Vance (wife of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance) were rated unfavorably by Indian-Americans.

According the the research, the issue that was rated highest among Indian-Americans was ‘inflation’ and ‘cost of living’ which was tied with ‘state of the economy’ and ‘jobs’, closely followed by ‘abortion and reproductive rights’.

SURVEY INSIGHT

The survey focuses on several interesting data sets and reveals the following:

There are approximately 5.2 million people of Indian origin residing in the United States today, of which 3.9 million are eighteen or older. According to data available, it is estimated that there are roughly 2.6 million eligible Indian-American voters today.
Between 2010 and 2020, the Indian-American community has grown by 50 per cent, making it the second-largest immigrant community by country of origin, trailing only Mexican-Americans.
The median household income for Indian Americans is roughly $153,000, more than double the figure for the country as a whole.

Here are some graphs that show the findings of the survey:

The analysis of the survey suggests that though the Republican Party has made significant inroads, the views of the Indian-American community still clearly resonates with that of the Democratic Party. With the Democrat Presidential candidate being of Indian heritage, the party seems to be ahead comfortably for 2024. However, the rate at which the Republicans have increased their efforts to garner the Indian-American vote, 2028 may just be a challenging election for the Democrats.
 

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