The Congress, which posted a hugely improved performance in the Lok Sabha election, is likely to end the year on a sweet note, exit polls indicate. The party is likely to form the next government in Haryana, ending the 10-year run of the BJP;  and its alliance with National Conference may stay ahead in the race for Jammu and Kashmir, which could delivered a fractured mandate.  

An aggregate of seven  exit polls indicate that the Congress will win 55 of Haryana’s 90 seats – comfortably ahead of the halfway mark of 45.  

In Jammu and Kashmir, which also has 90 seats after delimitation, the Congress-National Conference alliance is likely to win 43 seats — three less than the majority mark. 

Exit polls, though, can often get it wrong. 

The BJP could end up with 27 seats each in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.  One exit poll, Jist-TIF Research, gave the BJP an outside margin of 37 seats – the maximum – in Haryana. 

Abhay Chautala’s INLD (Indian National Lok Dal) could win two seats and the BJP’s erstwhile ally JJP (Jannayak Janata Party) one seat in Haryana. 

Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, exit polls indicate, may not be able to open its account in Haryana, despite its rule in neighbouring Delhi and Punjab.

The situation in Jammu and Kashmir, where assembly election was held after a decade, throws up interesting possibilities given the prediction of a hung house. 

An aggregate of three exit polls indicate that the Congress and the National Conference will end up with 43 seats. The BJP’s projected score of 26 could put it far enough from the majority mark to stich up any alliance with smaller parties or Independents.

The BJP’s erstwhile ally, Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party, likely to win seven seats, is hoping to emerge as the kingmaker. The party has ruled out any possibility of a tie-up with the BJP, talking only in terms of a “secular alliance”. 

The BJP-PDP alliance, formed after yet another split verdict in 2014, broke down in  2018 after which the state was placed under President’s rule. In 2019, it was split into two Union Territories – a situation the BJP has promised to reverse in its third term at the Centre. 

The ball could thus be in the court of National Conference and the Congress to send feelers to the PDP. But the hurdle here is the historic rivalry between then NC and the PDP, which had always been competing for the votes in Kashmir Valley.

Ahead of the election, Mehbooba Mufti had extended a loaded offer to the NC-Congress alliance, saying she was ready to stay out of the election and leave all assembly seats for them if they were ready to accept the PDP’s agenda, including on Kashmir.

Forget about alliance and seat-sharing, if the Congress and the National Conference (NC) are ready to accept our agenda — that resolution of the Kashmir issue is necessary and on opening of routes — we will tell them to contest on all the seats and we will follow you,” she had said while releasing her party’s manifesto.

The two parties, part of the Gupkar alliance that’s aiming for restoration of statehood, had been unable to see eye to eye for the Lok Sabha polls as well, despite repeated requests by the Congress.
The counting of votes will be held on October 8.