Hassan Nasrallah is dead, Israel claimed today. The Hezbollah chief’s death has not been confirmed by the Iran-backed, Lebanon-based group but Israeli military have claimed that their airstrikes on Beirut last night killed the 64-year-old.

This development has sparked significant concern and speculation regarding the future of the militant group. Killing Nasrallah, who has led Hezbollah for 32 years, would deliver a substantial blow to the organisation. 

READ | Israel Says Hezbollah Chief Dead: “Will No Longer Terrorise The World”

If he is out of the picture, who will lead Hezbollah’s charge against Israel and what does it mean for the armed group’s future? 

Nasrallah’s Legacy

“Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah does not hold any public office, but he is the de facto ruler of Lebanon. He rules by televised speech. The rest of the state (even when there was a president and prime minister), learn the fate of their country and tailor their policies in accordance with what they hear Nasrallah saying,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, veteran journalist, Middle East expert and research fellow at the Foundation For Defense of Democracy in Washington DC, told NDTV.

READ | Inside Lebanon Politics: Hezbollah, Iran And A Larger Battle For Hegemony

Born in 1960 in East Beirut, Hassan Nasrallah’s early life was shaped by the Lebanese Civil War, which prompted his family to return to their ancestral village. At 15, he joined the Amal movement, a Shia political and paramilitary group. His educational journey took him to Iraq for Quranic studies, but he returned to Lebanon in 1978 due to government pressures against Shia radicals.

In 1982, following the Israeli invasion, he transitioned from Amal to join Hezbollah, which was formed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. His leadership began in earnest after the assassination of his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, in 1992. Under Nasrallah, Hezbollah transformed from a militia focused on resistance to Israeli occupation into a political force in Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s operations in southern Lebanon contributed to Israel’s withdrawal in 2000, a momentous event that significantly bolstered Nasrallah’s reputation. His opposition to Israel remained a cornerstone of his leadership, as he famously stated, “I don’t believe in the state of Israel as a legal state because it was founded on occupation.”

Implications of Nasrallah’s Death

Replacing Nasrallah would present an unprecedented challenge, especially given Israeli military successes that have already decimated Hezbollah’s leadership structure. The loss of Nasrallah would compound these issues, as the group faces questions about its internal security following the assassination of several key commanders and the recent pager blast attacks the shook the group across Lebanon. While Hezbollah is not expected to collapse entirely if Nasrallah were to die, his removal would undoubtedly damage the group’s morale and serve as a potent symbol of Israel’s military dominance.

“Hezbollah will not collapse if Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated, but this will be a major blow to the group’s morale. It would also underline Israel’s security and military superiority and access,” Analyst Lina Khatib of the Chatham House Policy Institute said as quoted by news agency Reuters. 

The potential ramifications extend beyond morale; they may also affect Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

Hezbollah has engaged in a year-long exchange of fire with Israel across the Lebanese border, which has escalated into its worst conflict since 2006. Hezbollah increased its rocket fire into Israel since the October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas. In the aftermath of the recent Beirut airstrike, Hezbollah launched several attacks on Israeli positions, indicating an effort to demonstrate its operational capacity despite the ongoing Israeli offensive.

A Leadership Vacuum

The question of succession looms large. Any new leader would need to be acceptable to both Hezbollah’s internal factions and its Iranian backers. Currently, Hashem Safieddine is viewed as the likely heir to Nasrallah. 

Safieddine, who oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs and is a member of the group’s Jihad Council, is also Nasrallah’s cousin and shares a clerical background. The US State Department designated him a terrorist in 2017.

Nasrallah had been grooming Safieddine for leadership through various positions within the organisation. His familial ties, physical resemblance to Nasrallah, and religious status would all contribute to his potential leadership.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death in an Israeli airstrike is expected to significantly impact the group he led for 32 years. The challenge of finding a successor is compounded by internal and external pressures. Israel’s military is preparing for potential escalations as tensions with Lebanon continue to rise following recent conflicts.